Opinion: Europe’s space sector is 10 years behind the competition

The continent now aims to foster competition and build reusable rockets as it lags far behind the US and China. At its current pace, it’s unlikely Europe will ever catch up.

Ariane 6 marks the end of an era

Arianespace was once a global leader in rocket launches. In 2007, the company celebrated a record-breaking year. Three years before SpaceX’s Falcon 9 flew for the first time, Arianespace announced its global leadership, having flown Ariane 5 five times that year.

Those numbers pale in comparison to SpaceX’s launch figures today. Falcon 9 comes close to reaching the now-retired Ariane 5’s total launch number every year. Ariane 5 flew 113 times, while Falcon 9 flew 96 times last year alone.

Unfortunately, Ariane 6 may be remembered as representing an era’s end rather than marking a new one’s start for Arianespace. The European firm became a global leader with Ariane 5. It is arguably diving head-first in the wrong direction with Ariane 6. 

Ariane 6 cuts costs compared with Ariane 5, but its launch costs are still high. The fact it is a non-reusable rocket also represents Europe’s launch sector stagnation. It is a mistake that won’t be reversed any time soon.

A fork in the road: Reusable or non-reusable?

2014 was a turning point for Europe’s space ambitions. At a summit in Luxembourg that year, space ministers agreed on a plan of action for Arianespace. The company’s next rocket will launch in 2020, and crucially, it will not be reusable. The idea of copying SpaceX’s partial reusability was floated at the summit and rejected. 

Instead, European Space Agency representatives decided to build a rocket that would be roughly 50 percent cheaper to launch and more maneuverable in orbit than Ariane 5.

European officials have since admitted this was a mistake. “In 2014 there was a fork in the road, and we didn’t take the right path,” French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire told a press conference room in 2020. “We should have made the choice of the reusable launcher. We should have had this audacity.”

The fact that Europe turned its back on reusability means that 96 launches a year is simply out of reach for Ariane 6. This concerns the cost and logistics of building a new rocket for every launch. Instead, Ariane 6 is expected to fly roughly nine times per year.

Europe planned for two Ariane 6 configurations: The Ariane 62, with two boosters, would cost roughly €70 million per launch, while the four-booster Ariane 64 would cost around €90 million. 

However, according to a recent Politico report, these estimations were highly optimistic, and the first Ariane 6 launches will exceed €100 million. As a point of reference, Falcon 9 is believed to cost SpaceX around €70 million per launch.

Ariane 6 delays

A non-reusable rocket is still better than no rocket.

Before the launch of Ariane 6, French astronaut Thomas Pesquet tweeted: “​​No matter how you look at it, is fundamental for Europe to have autonomous access to space for strategic, economic, and scientific reasons. Space has become so important that we simply can’t let others launch our own satellites.”

During the European Space Agency’s annual media briefing in January last year, Director General Josef Aschbacher announced that “from mid-2023, we do not have guaranteed access to space for European launches, and this is a huge problem.”

A combination of factors left Europe without access to space in 2023. The pandemic delayed the development of Ariane 6, while Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine fractured the country’s relations with the rest of Europe. Europe had meant to continue launching satellites using Russia’s Soyuz rockets, but these were now off the table. In December 2022, the mid-size Vega C rocket failed, losing two satellites.

So, Ariane 6’s importance is partly governed by a need for alternatives. This is a damning indictment of the state of Europe’s launch industry. 

While the continent will be relieved that Ariane 6 is closer to going operational, the lack of access to space will also serve as a lesson. Europe is too reliant on Arianespace. The company also needs more competition within the continent, which may be partly to blame for its relative lack of innovation compared to firms from the US and China.

Where are Europe’s reusable rockets?

Europe does finally seem to be taking a leaf out of NASA and SpaceX’s book, though it might be too late. ESA is now running a program focused on funding new ventures, allowing them access to Europe’s spaceport, and handing them framework contracts for future launches.

Companies that have benefited include PLD Space, which flew Europe’s first privately built rocket, Miura 1, from southern Spain last year, and Scotland’s Orbex.  

There is a long journey ahead, though. PLD Space’s Miura 1 was a reusable suborbital rocket. It only flew once, and it wasn’t recovered after the launch. The company’s next rocket, Miura 5, could fly by 2026. It is expected to have a total payload mass of up to 900 kg (2,000 lb) to low Earth orbit. Falcon 9 flies 22,800 kg (50,265 lb) to LEO.

The sunk cost fallacy may also come into play. Europe has awarded the Ariane 6 program roughly €6 billion in subsidies to date, and it isn’t about to put the rocket on the chopping block. In fact, according to Arianespace CEO Stéphane Israël, Europe will likely have to wait until the 2030s to have a reusable rocket.

During a radio appearance in April, Israël said, “when the decisions were made on Ariane 6, we did so with the technologies that were available to quickly introduce a new rocket.” He said Ariane 6 would likely fly for ten years in the same segment before a reusable successor replaces it. 

The introduction of Ariane 6 has been anything but quick, and Europe may need to catch up. China continues to encourage its private sector to build reusable rockets, while SpaceX continues to test the world’s most powerful rocket, the fully reusable Starship. 

Europe started initial development on reusable technologies via its Prometheus and Themis initiatives before the decision was made to go non-reusable with Ariane 6. If initial designs are in place, ten years seems an incredibly long time for Europe to catch up with the rest.