‘Doomsday glacier’ that can flood coastlines globally may not collapse as predicted

The so-called “doomsday glacier” may not collapse as feared, says a new Dartmouth-led study.

‘Doomsday glacier’ that can flood coastlines globally may not collapse as predicted

Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier.

NASA

A recent Dartmouth-led study has revealed that the worst predictions for ocean rise owing to melting ice sheets are not likely to happen. However, it doesn’t negate the fact the melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica continues to be a concerning matter. 

The study challenges the existing report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which talked of a possible scenario where Antarctica would contribute hugely to making the average global sea level rise twice as much, and three times by 2030. 

However, this study says otherwise. The researchers of this study reveal that if the report by the IPCC was to be believed then the Florida Peninsula would long be submerged. This group of researchers have implemented Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI) with three high-resolution models that can help capture data with more accuracy. 

New research challenges extreme predictions for Thwaites Glacier’s impact on sea levels

In their research the experts experimented on the Thwaites Glacier, popularly called the Doomsday Glacier to accelerate the rate at which it melted. They also wanted to analyze its potential to raise the global sea levels by more than two feet. 

According to the researchers, the Doomsday Glacier will most certainly not collapse, according to their recent calculations and prognosis. The researchers added that the conclusions of the IPCC report are inaccurate. 

Mathieu Morlighem, a Dartmouth professor said, “These projections are actually changing people’s lives. Policymakers and planners rely on these models and they’re frequently looking at the high-end risk. They don’t want to design solutions and then the threat turns out to be even worse than they thought,” Morlighem said.

“We’re not reporting that the Antarctic is safe and that sea-level rise isn’t going to continue—all of our projections show a rapid retreat of the ice sheet. But high-end projections are important for coastal planning and we want them to be accurate in terms of physics. In this case, we know this extreme projection is unlikely over the course of the 21st century” he added. 

Understanding the doomsday glacier: New insights into ice shelf collapse and sea level rise

Morlighem added that the concept behind MICI relates to an ice shelf which collapses rapidly, leaving the ice cliffs from the outer edges of the ice sheets exposed and without support. 

In case these cliffs are tall they are mostly likely to break under their own weight. This phenomenon would even cause a taller cliff to be exposed. This will result in a faster retreat since this will cause the ice sheet to collapse inward. 

As a result, the moving of the ice into the ocean and its gradual melting would cause the sea level to rise potentially. 

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The doomsday glacier has made it to the news more often than not because it has been identified as vulnerable. It’s also under the radar as it can cause the ice shelf to break down. This research is specifically important for highlighting a different narrative with regard to the glacier melting and the sea level rising. 

Even though researchers are monitoring the glacier, it may be said that its future is uncertain as of current times. 

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Gairika Mitra Gairika is a technology nerd, an introvert, and an avid reader. Lock her up in a room full of books, and you'll never hear her complain.