High cost, low yield: Astronauts stuck as Boeing’s Starliner expenses rocket

Boeing vs SpaceX: Where it all began

In 2014, NASA awarded Boeing and SpaceX Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contracts. The space agency tasked both companies with developing capsules to ferry cargo and crew to and from the ISS.

NASA selected two companies to encourage healthy competition. At the time, many saw it as a given that Boeing would outperform SpaceX. 

SpaceX was a relative newcomer to the space sector, and its Falcon 9 rocket had flown for the first time in 2010. Boeing, meanwhile, had a historic track record of developing technology for NASA’s Apollo program, the Space Shuttle, and the ISS.

Now, 14 years later, the outlook couldn’t be more different. SpaceX was celebrated for bringing human spaceflight back to US soil for the first time in almost a decade. The private company is now seen as a pioneer for more affordable, reusable spaceflight. It is also developing the world’s most powerful rocket, which could eventually fly humans to the Moon and Mars. 

Boeing, meanwhile, has seen its reputation massively damaged by two 737 MAX airliner crashes in 2018 and 2019, as well as recent incidents of pieces falling from its planes mid-flight. Two whistleblowers also recently came forward and heavily criticized Boeing’s safety practices.

Starliner malfunctions

After launching aboard Starliner, attached to a ULA Atlas V rocket, on June 5, Wilmore and Williams were initially scheduled to stay aboard the ISS for eight days. 

Thruster malfunctions and hydrogen leaks during flight have kept them aboard the space station for over 50 days.

Some recent reports have suggested Wilmore and Williams are stranded aboard the ISS. That’s not true. If all goes to plan, they will soon fly back aboard Starliner – four of the capsule’s five thrusters have been reactivated. Otherwise, they would likely hitch a ride aboard a Crew Dragon capsule.

In a recent press briefing, Steve Stich, NASA’s commercial crew program manager, said, “We don’t have a major announcement today relative to a return date. We’re making great progress, but we’re just not quite ready to do that.”

“The vehicle is in good shape,” he added. “I want to make it very clear that Butch and Suni are not stranded in space.”

The cost of Starliner

Aside from being inaccurate, alarming headlines about Wilmore and Williams being stranded in space arguably distract from the real problem with Boeing’s Starliner program. Its cost.

According to a recent Ars Technica report, the Boeing Starliner program has cost roughly $6.7 billion since 2010, which is at least twice as much as SpaceX’s Crew Dragon program. 

When comparing Starliner to Crew Dragon in that context, it’s hard not to see Starliner as an unmitigated disaster. Crew Dragon has been operational since 2020, and its Crew-9 mission is expected to lift off this month. It could also soon enable the first private spacewalk in history.

Some might argue that Starliner is experiencing teething pains typical of previous generations of spacecraft, but this goes deeper than that.

With its initial CCtCap contract a decade ago, NASA awarded Boeing $4.2 billion to complete the development of its Starliner program. At the time, the aerospace firm projected that the Starliner would fly by the end of 2017.

Years of delays followed, and numerous launch cancellations made people question whether Boeing might cut its losses and cancel the Starliner program altogether.

Moreover, Boeing has far exceeded the fixed fee NASA awarded it. The aerospace firm is now responsible for paying any additional costs required to get Starliner back to Earth and functioning as intended.

Last week, Boeing warned investors that it would lose more money on the Starliner program for years to come. “Risk remains that we may record additional losses in future periods,” the company wrote in an SEC filing.

What next for Starliner?

Boeing has six operational missions pending for NASA with Starliner. However, the company’s crew capsule will unlikely be operational this year.

Last month, NASA announced a six-month delay for the Starliner-1 mission to allow Boeing more time to fix the problems that arose during the crew flight test.

Boeing remains confident it can deliver on its promise. During recent press conferences, officials argued exaggerated claims about Starliner’s failures came from bad PR and unclear communication.

Mark Nappi, Boeing’s commercial crew program manager, argued that in hindsight, he should “not have not have been so emphatic about [the Starliner crew test flight] being an eight-day mission. It’s my regret that we didn’t just say we’re going to stay up there until we get everything done that we want to go do.” 

According to Nappi, the issues Starliner experienced are typical of a crew test flight. The problem was one of communications, exacerbated by a press eager for dramatic headlines. But was it really a communications issue, or do the problems run deeper for Starliner? Time will tell. 

Unfortunately, Boeing has had a lot of experience with bad PR recently. Falling plane panels and allegations of management overlooking design flaws will do that to you. Bad PR will inevitably lead to increased scrutiny. 

Starliner might have traveled to space, but Boeing faces a long journey to rebuild its reputation, which saw it as a shoo-in to beat SpaceX to the ISS in 2014.